Escalating Verbal Conflict Between Ethiopian Government and Eritrean Government Triggers Fears of Armed Clash

Mounting apprehensions exist about the chance of armed conflict involving East African neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as confrontational discourse has intensified in the last month.

What Did Ethiopia Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has provoked a fierce war of words.

PM Abiy Ahmed initially stated publicly in the previous year that his government's sea access was an existential matter, statements that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Diplomatic connections between the two countries have regularly been difficult. Following a long-standing fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a long Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, rendering it landlocked.

Subsequently, a military clash broke out in which numerous people died.

Current Comments from Ethiopia's Government

Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have openly claimed sovereignty of Eritrea's southern port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and suggested the desire to seize it militarily.

In early September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "mistake" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "addressed in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be restored "through military action".

Eritrea's Answer to the Claims

Despite persistent warnings from Ethiopian officials, Asmara's position has been restricted to concise remarks on X from Communications Head the minister.

Officials have denied Ethiopian requests for maritime entry calling it "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a approach of claiming back previous domains.

The information ministry warned on 16 September that moves to legitimise "flagrant aggression" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Preparations on the Ground

Currently, there are little evidence of major military movements in the border areas between the both nations.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, state television has broadcast completion events of numerous trainees at various military training camps.

The director of personnel division of the military, General Hachalu, stated recently in an interview that the military was in a "reliable position" as "many thousands of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a signal to our enemies".

Previous Background of the Tension

For more than half a century from 1890, the territory was administered by colonial powers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the UK forces before evolving into a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

However in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor cancelled this agreement and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A extended internal conflict occurred, ending with the government's loss in 1991. Independence was then endorsed by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they clashed over the specific demarcation of their common border, resulting in war in 1998.

Even though this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the both countries stayed at in dispute.

This changed in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The two endorsed a announcement that the hostilities was concluded – a action that earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The two governments were then partners in the country's previous civil war in Tigray.

However ties have later worsened again.